Geopolitical fires burn Dalal Street; rupee hits record low as crude tops $90

Auto was the worst-hit sector for a second consecutive session, falling over 3 per cent. | Photo Credit: iStockphoto

Markets extended their losing streak on Thursday as escalating West Asia tensions rattled investor confidence, pushing the Sensex down 829 points to close at 76,034.42 and the Nifty 50 lower by 227 points to settle at 23,639 — its lowest close in recent sessions. The rupee skidded to a record low of 92.19 against the US dollar, a depreciation of 0.17 per cent, as fresh attacks on oil and transportation infrastructure in the region drove crude prices sharply higher.

Brent crude surged to over $100 during early Asian hours before settling around $90.63 per barrel, up 3.87 per cent on the day. On the domestic exchange, crude rose another 4 per cent, widening India’s import bill concerns. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that the dollar index hovering above 99 and volatile crude kept the rupee under pressure, adding that the expected trading range for the currency is “91.45–92.75.” Market participants will watch US initial jobless claims and GDP data for further cues.

Auto was the worst-hit sector for a second consecutive session, falling over 3 per cent, dragged by Mahindra & Mahindra (down 4.39 per cent to ₹3,029.10), Eicher Motors (down 3.92 per cent to ₹6,969.50), Maruti Suzuki (down 3.72 per cent to ₹12,995), and Tata Motors (down 3.30 per cent to ₹324.30). Bajaj Finance also declined 3.44 per cent to ₹862.95. Energy was the sole bright spot, gaining 1.93 per cent, with Coal India surging 5.20 per cent to ₹470, NTPC rising 2.91 per cent to ₹390.95, and Power Grid advancing 1.74 per cent to ₹304. Tech Mahindra added 1.49 per cent to ₹1,354.30 and Jio Financial gained 1.38 per cent to ₹242.

The Bank Nifty closed 1.1 per cent lower at 55,100. In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 slipped 0.3 per cent and the Smallcap 100 declined 0.6 per cent, though both indices outperformed the headline indices. On BSE, out of 4,404 stocks traded, 2,645 declined against 1,598 advances, and 378 stocks touched 52-week lows.

Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, pointed out that “the lack of de-escalation signs in West Asia geopolitical tensions continued to unsettle global markets and push crude oil prices higher... raising concerns over inflationary pressures, currency weakness and the potential impact on India’s trade balance.”

The geopolitical overhang extended beyond markets. Satish Kumar, MD and Head at InCred Research Services, flagged that “war disruptions are slowing the movement of critical cargo” and that pharmaceutical companies dependent on imported APIs face mounting logistics challenges that could “eventually reflect in pricing pressures across the supply chain.”

In derivatives, fresh short build-up was seen in both front-month Nifty and Bank Nifty futures contracts — prices fell as open interest rose — with positioning more aggressive in Nifty futures, according to Akshay Chinchalkar, Managing Partner and Head of Markets Strategy at The Wealth Company. He noted the index made a low within the “crucial 23,300–23,700 support area” and identified 24,300 as key resistance on the upside.

In commodities, gold edged lower to $5,181.78 per ounce (approximately ₹1,53,691 per 10 grams) amid a firmer dollar, while silver rose 1.38 per cent to $87.03 per ounce (₹2,58,144 per kg).

Technically, multiple analysts flagged that a sustained break below 23,500 on the Nifty could accelerate declines toward the 23,000–23,200 zone. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities observed a “high wave type candle pattern” forming at swing lows — a formation that can sometimes precede a reversal — while also noting a positive divergence forming in the daily RSI. However, he cautioned that a move above 23,850 is needed to confirm any upside turn.

For the sessions ahead, Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities sees 23,850 as the critical trend-decider level for day traders. Mishra added that resistance at 24,000–24,300 “is likely to face stiff resistance” on any recovery. With geopolitical tensions unresolved, crude elevated, and the rupee at record lows, market participants are advised to keep position sizes in check and remain nimble heading into next week, which Chinchalkar identified as a “critical” window for a potential directional turn.

Published on March 12, 2026